| Abstract | Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati zapadne poglede na neke ključne elemente onoga što bi se moglo nazvati jugoslavenskom krizom. Tematski okvir rada predstavlja s jedne strane razdoblje neposredno prije smrti Josipa Broza Tita 1980. koje je označilo ključnu prekretnicu u povijesti jugoslavenske države, a s druge strane rad je omeđen procesom uspona i konsolidacije moći Slobodana Miloševića u razdoblju oko 1987. godine. Rad se temelji na neobjavljenim i objavljenim izvorima. Najveći dio građe pribavljen je iz The National Archives u Londonu, Arhiva Jugoslavije u Beogradu te iz javno objavljenih arhivskih baza podataka CREST (the CIA Records Search Tool), National Archives at College Park, Maryland i Open Society Archives na Central European University, Budimpešta. Kroz analizu dokumenata koji su prikupljeni, kako u navedenim institucijama tako i iz drugih izvora, namjeravala se stvoriti jasna slika evolucije pogleda na Jugoslaviju u spomenutom razdoblju. Početni dio rada daje pregled razvoja ključnih segmenata socijalističke Jugoslavije od njenog osnivanja nakon Drugog svjetskog rata. Daje se prikaz političkih i gospodarskih reformi koje su provođene u pokušaju izgradnje samostalnog puta u socijalizam. Govori se o ključnim borbama na političkoj sceni i krizama koje je Jugoslavija prolazila tijekom razlaza sa SSSR-om 1948., smjene Aleksandra Rankovića 1966., događanja na Kosovu i studentskih prosvjeda 1968. te Hrvatskog proljeća 1971. Daje se prikaz vanjskopolitičkog položaja Jugoslavije i njenog profiliranja u jednu od najvažnijih zemalja Pokreta nesvrstanih. Središnji dio rada započinje poglavljem koje se bavi predviđanjima američkih i britanskih obavještajnih i diplomatskih zajednica o mogućim procesima koji će se u Jugoslaviji događati nakon smrti Josipa Broza. Obrazloženo je na koji način su spomenute strukture promatrale Jugoslaviju krajem sedamdesetih i na koji način su se njihove procjene mijenjale s obzirom na promjenu političkih okolnosti. Kao ključni trenutak čitavog razdoblja može se promatrati smrt Josipa Broza čiji odlazak sa životne scene uvodi Jugoslaviju u razdoblje neizvjesnosti. Takva mišljenja jasno su vidljiva i kod američkih i kod britanskih izvora. I jedni i drugi imali su neskriveno poštovanje prema ulozi koju je Tito igrao u Jugoslaviji. U radu se obrađuje i prva velika krizna situacija posttitovske Jugoslavije, a to su nemiri na Kosovu 1981. i kako je kompleks tih problema utjecao na perspektivu Zapadnih partnera. Ono što je uvijek bilo u središtu njihovih zanimanja u promatranom razdoblju bilo je jugoslavensko gospodarstvo koje je simultano sa Brozovom smrću doživjelo pad. Ekonomski problemi obilježili su cijelo razdoblje koje obuhvaća rad i na početku osamdesetih su bili u središtu zanimanja Amerike i Britanije. Još jedan segment koji je obrađen u radu su stavovi i procjene britanskih i američkih sigurnosnih i diplomatskih službi o procesima u SKJ i JNA kao najvažnijim institucionalnim temeljima socijalističke Jugoslavije. Zapadni partneri su pažljivo promatrali procese unutar tih institucija koje su u promatranom razdoblju prolazile kroz turbulentne promjene. Važan dio jugoslavenskih problema koji je bio u fokusu SAD-a i Velike Britanije bilo je pitanje međunacionalnih odnosa. Taj problem je eskalirao s događajima na Kosovu 1981. i s vremenom postaje sve važniji segment kroz koji se definiraju odnosi u Jugoslaviji u analizama zapadnih partnera. Na koncu, rad završava poglavljem koje se bavi usponom Slobodana Miloševića na vrh političke scene u Jugoslaviji i načinom na koji je on poremetio osjetljivu strukturu jugoslavenskog federalizma. Milošević je, što se tiče okvira ovoga rada, rubna figura, ali njegova pojava i politika vrlo brzo je ušla u fokus američkih obavještajnih i diplomatskih analiza jer je prepoznat kao glavna prijetnja za stabilnost Jugoslavije. Ono što je potrebno naglasiti u svrhu boljeg razumijevanja sadržaja rada je to da su Amerikanci i Britanci Jugoslaviju uvijek promatrali u širem okviru Hladnog rata. Svi njihovi pogledi na probleme u Jugoslaviji obilježeni su odnosom sa SSSR-om kao glavnim ideološkim i sigurnosnim suparnikom. Jugoslavija se u tom kontekstu uvijek promatra kao važan primjer nesvrstane zemlje koja vodi samostalnu politiku i u tom okviru treba biti podržana. Zbog takvih stavova koji su zastupani na Zapadu, nikakav pokret u Jugoslaviji koji bi zemlju odveo natrag na Istok ili je išao za rušenjem Jugoslavije, nije mogao biti podržan. |
| Abstract (english) | The objective of this dissertation was to analyse Western views on certain key elements of what might be called the Yugoslav crisis. The thematic framework of the dissertation encompasses, on one side, the period immediately before the death of Josip Broz Tito in 1980 that marked a turning point in the history of the Yugoslav state and, on the other side, the process of the rise of Slobodan Milosevic and consolidation of his power in the period around 1987. The dissertation is based on both unpublished and published sources. Most of the materials used for its creation were obtained from the National Archives in London, Archives of Yugoslavia in Belgrade, as well as from the public archive database CREST (the CIA Records Search Tool), National Archives at College Park, Maryland, and the Open Society Archives at Central European University, Budapest. Through the analysis of documents collected in the aforementioned institutions as well as from other sources, the author intended to create a clear image of the evolution in the perception of Yugoslavia during the period. The introductory part of the dissertation provides an overview of the key segments of socialist Yugoslavia since its foundation after the World War II. An overview of political and economic reforms that were undertaken in an attempt to build an independent road to socialism is also provided. This portion of the work also tackles the key conflicts in the political arena and crises Yugoslavia had gone through during the break with the USSR in 1948, as well as the dismissal of Aleksandar Rankovic in 1966, developments in Kosovo and student protests of 1968, and the Croatian Spring of 1971. It also provides an overview of the Yugoslavian foreign policy and its profiling into one of the most important countries of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). The central portion of the work begins with a chapter which deals with the predictions of American and British intelligences and diplomatic communities regarding the processes in Yugoslavia after the death of Josip Broz. It explains the manner in which these structures had been observing Yugoslavia at the end of the 1970's and how their assessments altered as the political circumstances changed. The death of Josip Broz can be seen as the key moment of the entire period. His departure faced Yugoslavia with a period of uncertainty, as perceived in the USA and British historical sources, both of which openly respected the role Tito had played in Yugoslavia. The dissertation also deals with the first major crisis situation in the post-Titoist Yugoslavia - the demonstrations in Kosovo in 1981 - and how the complexity of the situation affected the perspective of the country’s Western partners. The thing that was always the centre of their attention during the period was the Yugoslav economy that had experienced a significant drop simultaneously with the death of Broz. Economic problems have marked the entire period covered in the dissertation and, at the beginning of the 1980s, these issues became the focus of American and British attention. Another segment depicted in the dissertation are the views and assessments of British and American security and diplomatic services regarding the processes within the SKJ (the Communist League of Yugoslavia) and JNA (Yugoslav national Army), the most important institutions of the socialist Yugoslavia. Western partners were carefully watching the processes within these institutions, which underwent turbulent changes during the period. Another important part of the Yugoslav problem in the focus of the USA and the UK was the issue of inter-ethnic relations. This problem escalated with the events in Kosovo in 1981 and eventually turned into an increasingly important segment through which its Western partners analysed the relations in Yugoslavia. The dissertation is concluded with a chapter that deals with the rise of Slobodan Milosevic to top of the political scene in Yugoslavia and the manner in which he had disrupted the delicate structure of Yugoslav federalism. Milosevic is, as far as the scope of this dissertation extends, merely a marginal figure. However, his appearance and politics very quickly became the focus of the US intelligence and diplomatic analysis because he was recognized as a major threat to the stability of Yugoslavia. With regards to the subject-matter of this dissertation, it should be emphasized that the Americans and the British had always observed Yugoslavia in the context of the Cold War. All their views on the problems in Yugoslavia were defined according to their relations with the USSR as their main rival in terms of ideology and safety issues. In this context, Yugoslavia is still perceived as an important example of a non-aligned country that pursued an independent policy and, within this framework, such views should be supported. Because of such attitudes of the West, no movement in Yugoslavia that would lead the country back to the East or pursue disintegration of Yugoslavia could ever be supported. |
