Title Postupak uvođenja eura i očekivani učinci na hrvatsko gospodarstvo Title (english) Process of Euro introduction and the expected effects on the Croatian economy Author Iva Kinda Mentor Anita Peša (mentor)Committee member Berislav Bolfek (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Anita Peša (član povjerenstva)Committee member Mladen Rajko (član povjerenstva)Granter University of Zadar Defense date and country 2021-03-10, Croatia Scientific / art field, SOCIAL SCIENCES Abstract U ovom radu prikazani su učinci uvođenja eura na pojedine makroekonomske pokazatelje država europodručja, koje imaju slična gospodarska obilježja kao Republika Hrvatska. Ne može se u potpunosti utvrditi kakav je učinak uvođenja eura, jer se učinak razlikovao među državama. Makroekonomski pokazatelji tih država uspoređeni su s hrvatskim makroekonomskim pokazateljima te je utvrđeno da su sve promatrane države, posljednjih godina zabilježile niže kamatne stope, nižu nezaposlenost i veći porast BDP-a, jedino je u Republici Hrvatskoj zabilježena niža inflacija. Republika Hrvatska je mala i otvorena država, kojoj je temelj monetarne politike održavanje stabilnosti tečaja kune prema euru. Zbog visokog deviznog duga vrlo je važno da tečaj hrvatske kune prema euru fluktuira u što užem rasponu. Uvođenjem eura valutni rizik će gotovo u potpunosti nestati, što predstavlja glavnu korist od uvođenja eura. Utvrđeno je da će hrvatsko gospodarstvo imati veće koristi od troškova uvođenjem eura. Koristi će biti trajne, a troškovi uglavnom niski i jednokratni. Prikazuje se, gdje se Republika Hrvatska nalazi po pitanju uvođenja eura. Republika Hrvatska je napravila prvi korak za uvođenje eura, jer je pristupila tečajnom mehanizmu ERM II. Sada je potrebno voditi ekonomsku politiku s ciljem ispunjavanja kriterija konvergencije i smanjivanja ranjivosti gospodarstva. Važno je održavati makroekonomsku stabilnost, za što će ključnu ulogu imati strukturne reforme i fiskalna politika. Najveći problem bi moglo predstavljati ispunjenje fiskalnih kriterija. Iako se javni dug posljednjih godina smanjuje, on je i dalje vrlo visok. S obzirom na pad javnog duga, ovaj kriterij bi mogao biti pozitivno ocijenjen, bez obzira na razinu duga, veću od 60% BDP-a. Ipak, prisutna je neizvjesnost zbog pandemije bolesti COVID-19 koja bi mogla dovesti do pogoršanja proračunske pozicije i povećanja duga.
Abstract (english) This paper presents the effects of the introduction of the euro on individual macroeconomic indicators of euro area countries with similar economic characteristics as Croatia. It is not possible to fully determine the effect of the introduction of the euro, as the effect varied between countries. The macroeconomic indicators of these countries were compared with the Croatian macroeconomic indicators and it was found that all observed countries, in recent years, recorded lower interest rates, lower unemployment and higher GDP growth, only in Croatia recorded lower inflation. Croatia is a small and open country, whose monetary policy is based on maintaining the stability of the kuna exchange rate against the euro. Due to the high foreign currency debt, it is very important that the exchange rate of the Croatian kuna against the euro fluctuates as narrowly as possible. With the introduction of the euro, currency risk will almost completely disappear, which is the main benefit of the introduction of the euro. It has been determined that the Croatian economy will have more benefits then costs of introducing the euro. The benefits will be permanent, and the costs will be mostly low and one-time. It shows position of Croatia in terms of the introduction of the euro. Croatia has entered the ERM II exchange rate mechanism, which is the first step towards the introduction of the euro. It is now necessary to pursue economic policy with the aim of meeting the convergence criteria and reducing the vulnerability of the economy. It is important to maintain macroeconomic stability, for which structural reforms and fiscal policy will play a key role. The biggest problem could be fulfillment of the fiscal criteria. Although public debt has been declining in recent years, it is still on very high level. Given the decline in public debt, this criterion could be positively assessed regardless of the level of debt greater than 60% of GDP. However, the COVID 19 pandemic could lead to a worsening of the budget position and an increase in debt.
Keywords
Europska monetarna unija
euro
makroekonomski učinci
kriteriji konvergencije
ERM II
Keywords (english)
European Monetary Union
euro
macroeconomic effects
convergence criteria
ERM II
Language croatian URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:162:292200 Study programme Title: Management Type of resource Text File origin Born digital Access conditions Access restricted to students and staff of home institution Terms of use Created on 2021-03-18 10:07:08
